The Way The Strange Season Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

Yet the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still