War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Polling materials in Myanmar
Myanmar's junta is holding a staggered vote over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Danny Barton
Danny Barton

A seasoned casino strategist with over a decade of experience in roulette gaming and betting analysis.